Cigarette Advertising Bans Raised Mortality When Risk Disclosures Ended
On January 2, 1971, cigarette commercials left American radio and television, and so did the anti-smoking advertisements broadcasters had been required to air since 1967. Each chart stops at the ban. Draw where you think the line went, then see the data.
Who became a smoker, by year of birth
What cigarette makers spent on advertising
Smoking from the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey, with 95 percent intervals. A smoker is anyone who smoked at least 100 cigarettes in their life. Advertising spending as reported by the cigarette companies to the Federal Trade Commission, in dollars at the time.
Abstract
Governments worldwide ban advertising of harmful products to protect public health, but the health effects of those bans are largely unknown. Here we measure the long-term mortality effects of cigarette advertising bans in ten countries. These bans differed in whether they also withdrew mandated risk disclosures. We examine the USA in the most detail, where the 1971 broadcast ban inadvertently reduced the anti-smoking advertisements required since 1967. Two national surveys show increased smoking among Americans who were teenagers after the 1971 ban. The smoking increase was larger in nonmetropolitan counties with stronger predicted television reception, suggesting the loss of anti-smoking advertisements as a mechanism. Using a cancer registry, we show that the same generation of teenagers were more likely to develop lung and laryngeal cancer. Using three death registries, we estimate that the ban caused 71,000 to 102,000 additional deaths from lung cancer, laryngeal cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. International comparisons show that deaths from smoking increased where cigarette advertising and risk disclosures ended together and decreased where advertising ended without that loss. Similar regulations today for prescription drug advertising in the USA and gambling advertising in Australia face losing a mandated risk disclosure, just as the USA did in 1971.